For many high performers, the new year is a natural time for reflection. Bonuses are paid, resolutions are made, and thoughts often turn to potential career moves.
LinkedIn cites January as the most popular month for employees to make the leap and switch companies with the new year. Some coin it the "January Effect."
Federal Data Shows Hiring Leverage Won't Last
The most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows job openings trending downward for the first time in years, while the number of workers voluntarily leaving roles has stabilized. This combination indicates a short-term period where employers have leverage before the next market tightening.
New federal data reveals slower job growth than expected. In August 2025, the BLS revised its job growth data downward by more than 900,000 positions, revealing that the perceived hiring boom was exaggerated. This means the market is cooling faster than most leaders realize.
For those who delay hiring, this means one thing, the candidate market you see today will not exist six months from now. By the time budgets cycle again, top performers will be taken and salary expectations will have climbed.
The Human Factor: Why Top Talent Moves at Year End
The end of the year is more than a budgeting milestone. It is a moment of personal audit for high performers. After receiving their bonuses and performance reviews, professionals evaluate whether their current role still aligns with their goals.
A University of Wisconsin study found that employees are more likely to explore new opportunities after incentive payouts. The International Journal for Research in Technological Innovation reports that turnover rises when compensation and career growth expectations diverge. Year end often brings those realities into focus.
For many, the financial runway provided by a bonus becomes the catalyst to act. They have the stability to move and the motivation to seek better alignment. For hiring leaders, this period creates a narrow window of access to talent that will not last long into the new year.
Don't Get Caught on Your Heels
With your new fiscal budgets being finalized or freshly approved, organizations have access to resources that will diminish over the next quarter. In reality, it can be a missed opportunity to capture talent while competition is still distracted.
According to a Harvard Business Review study, companies that invested in high-value talent during downturns outperformed peers by more than 10% in the following growth cycle.
The Leadership Imperative
How will you know when the talent window closes? You will see top candidates committed to other companies and potentially to your competitors. Your advantage will fade gradually as top candidates commit elsewhere.
This is opportunistic. We're encouraging them to capitalize on favorable conditions quickly. It is responsible. It shows foresight, confidence, and command of timing. The organizations that build now will scale faster and recover stronger.
We're saying this is the perfect time to hire. They are creating it.
Turn Insight into Action
It’s tempting to hold off on recruiting until the new budget is officially approved. But the data is clear, waiting could cost you the best candidates. Don’t let the impending holidays, performance reviews, or budget season lull you into missing your moment to hire.
Instead, align talent acquisition with your broader business objectives. Consider which roles will be most critical for growth in Q1 and secure that talent before the new year rush begins. Acting with intention ensures you enter the next quarter fully staffed, focused, and ready to execute.
At AEBetancourt, we help organizations transform hiring hesitation into hiring strategy. Our team partners with business leaders to identify the roles that drive performance, attract candidates who align with culture and vision.
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